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Over extended time periods, a few percentage points difference in IRR leads to an extraordinary difference in multiple of invested capital (MOIC) achieved.  Achieving high IRRs for such extended periods requires high growth in per share value and cannot be achieved via multiple expansion (an increase in valuation) alone.

The stocks of companies that can grow per share value at high rates for decades, though they often appear expensive in the short term, are frequently "long-term cheap," as illustrated in the above chart.

S&P 500 (9.8% IRR):

•5-year MOIC = 1.6x

•15-year MOIC = 4x

•30-year MOIC = 16.5x

20% IRR:

•5-year MOIC = 2.5x

•15-year MOIC = 15x

•30-year MOIC = 237x

Compounding - Duration Matters Greatly

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